14.8 A RESEARCH AGENDA

The previous section of the chapter looked at what the future may be holding in store. It presented scenarios based on technological change and its impact in the workplace and the home and the impact of those on technological change in educational institutions. It also looked at some aspects of future technological synergy that will be offering evermore powerful communication alternatives that may (or may not) have applicability in education and training systems.

The reason for putting this section prior to the research agenda is to indicate more clearly how the research issues listed in this section are linked to our vision of what the future possibly may hold in store. The driving objective behind the research agenda that follows is to try to be proactive and anticipative of technological change and its potential impact, both for the good and for the bad, on education and training systems.

The organizing principle for the following research agenda is a four-level planning model that considers separately, but in an integrated manner, the research issues that should be investigated in order to supply the answers we will need in order to:

1. Make sensible policy decisions regarding CMC.
2. Make effective strategic planning decisions.
3. Make tactical decisions within specific CMC projects.
4. Make good logistic decisions in relation to selection and use of the hardware and software that will be the tools of future CMC systems.

14.8. 1 General Research: The Policy Level

Under this heading, perhaps one of the most important (and least practiced) forms of educational research is the "futures study." In some respects the scenario presented in the section called "A Look to the Future" is an example of a futures study. The need is for more rigorous futures research that may evaluate, in advance, the impact of potential changes in the workplace or in society that may be brought about by technological progress or other change.

These in turn should be evaluated in terms of two factors. The first factor is in terms of the direct impact of societal changes on education, that is, on the goals, the content, the delivery methods in the macro sense (for example, to what extent will the demand for distance education grow and in what sectors of the market?), and so on. Secondly, the study should investigate in what way new technological developments can offer solutions to some of education's current or anticipated future problems and challenges.

This particular area of research is especially prone to what we described earlier as the "moving-target difficulty," in that technological change is happening at such a rate that the prediction of futures may be considered to be a continuing task rather than a project that may be done once and for all during a particular decade. The implications of not evaluating the alternatives in advance, or of evaluating incorrectly, are potentially very great both in terms of misapplied project funding and in terms of possible disappointment with end results of an innovation.

This area of futures research cannot be undertaken exclusively from a technological or an end-user standpoint. Technology and the citizens of society exist within a complex system that has its economic, political, and other pressures and constraints. A very clear example of possible misjudgments can be seen in plans that have been undertaken over the last years on the assumptions that certain technological improvements will be available within certain time spans. In the mid- and late 1980s, millions of dollars were invested in the United States into the "education utility" concept on the assumption that within a year or two all schools will be networked with sufficient bandwidth in order to enable a provider of educational information located at a distance to offer better service than the established system of booksellers, printers, videotape producers, etc. The education utility would replace all these traditional informational providers with one central electronic database that would supply any information to anyone anywhere on demand, just as electricity or water is supplied, and then bill the end user at the end of the month for the information actually used, just as the electricity or water utilities bill (Gooier, 1986).

Nearly 10 years have gone by and the education utility concept has not become a reality on a grand scale, although there are numerous "mini-education utilities" that have been implemented by corporations or by certain states (f( example, the state of Texas). The technology is here, but th political will and the economic pressures to make it available] are not necessarily here. Therefore, futures research of th type suggested here must be a broad systemic approach t the analysis of all factors that may play a part in the actual shaping of the future that we may expect.

Another aspect of general research is to keep up with technological developments. At the present time, development may focus on the potential integration of computer-mediate; communication (which is most commonly used as an asynchronous communication medium), with synchronous technologies of audio conferencing and video conferencing. The technological possibilities exist to integrate these currently separate technologies, so that, for example, som, of the distinctions that were made in Table 14-1 may take, on a purely academic meaning. However, just how would such integration work, what would it depend on, what will be its capabilities, and what are the expected time-lines ant costs for availability?

14.8.2 Organizational Research: The Strategic Level

If the previous category of general research can inform policy decisions in relation to CMC, then this next level of research would principally support strategic decisions in the context of overall planning of CMC systems and th( integration of these systems into broader education ade training systems. The research issues that require attention are ones related to overall educational system planning with CMC seen as one component. For example, to what extent ought CMC be involved as a component in open learning systems or in other flexible learning programs? In the industrial-training context, to what extent and in what way can we utilize CMC systems as part of the tendency to develop electronic performance support systems that may enable the trainee to receive all necessary information both for learning and for reference at the workplace as and when required (Gery, 1991)? Alternatively, if the training continues to be off the job, can CMC be utilized to put into reality the concept of a Just-in-time-training" in its broadest sense?

Another important research agenda concerns strategies for effective dissemination of CMC in actual educational systems. The British Open University (OU) is currently engaged in finding answers to the research questions concerned with "scalability" of CMC. How can the undoubted successes of small-group educational computer conferencing be scaled up to large-distance education? So far this medium has only been used as a means of tutorial support on large courses, and this has been shown to have a number of major disadvantages. While some students valued electronic contact with their tutor and found that the medium reduced the isolation often reported by distance learners, the pedagogical benefits of this minimal use of the system proved fairly marginal. But more significantly, the success of even this low-level use of conferencing was shown to be highly dependent on the quality and quantity of the tutor input. This problem of tutor workload is a critical issue, where tutors are currently paid for only half-dozen hours of student contact throughout an entire course (Mason & Kaye, 1989).

The Open University has experimented with a number of small-scale uses of computer conferencing with 25 to 50 students. Many of these trials have involved the use of the conferencing system FirstClass. The results of these have shown how exciting and educationally valuable this medium can be (Mason, 1994b). However, it is the conclusion of those involved in many of these trials that no ideal model has yet been identified for applying these successes to large courses of 1,000 to 5,000 students. Some of the suggestion's under consideration include: the extension and enhancement of peer learning groups; the use of "master classes," in which a few students interact with an expert while the remainder can read only; increased input from central academic staff who normally write courses rather than interact with students; the use of World Wide Web facilities integrated with conferencing facilities; and the development of a few specialist conferencing tutors rather than the expectation that all tutors will be trained and paid for conferencing duties. A variety of uses of conferencing are jumbled together among these suggestions, and it is important to distinguish them: conferencing used for teaching (the content of the course) and conferencing used for tutoring (supporting the student); conferencing used for course delivery (of articles, updating material, directives from the course team) and conferencing used for interaction (between students and teachers). While it is possible, perhaps even desirable, that the OU use conferencing for all these things, it is necessary to be clear on the objectives for each type of use. Over the next few years as the OU expands into continental Europe, extensive use will be made of computer conferencing, and many of these uses will be integrated with various forms of multimedia educational facilities, such as CD-ROM. During this period, the OU will be experimenting widely with a variety of large-scale conferencing models.

Apart from specific courses that use electronic communication as a teaching vehicle, the Open University is also setting an ambitious target for providing administrative access to students through computer networking. By 1996, the OU aims to make a wide range of services available on-line: inquiry and information services including on-line registration; induction material, library access, and support services; local call access and Internet connections for all students; and a network support environment package. While these facilities may not be innovative for campus-based universities, providing these systems for as many students spread as widely as OU students is a major undertaking. The benefits are perceived to be increased individual autonomy and control over the learning process, bringing the university to the home to a much greater extent than before, adding flexibility and tailorability to courses, and freeing the OU from the assumption that large student numbers are needed to achieve economies of scale.

14.8.3 Instructional Research: The Tactical Level

Perhaps one of the most important areas for tactical research at the moment is to investigate the potential applications and specific methodologies for collaborative learning. This research should look at the tools available and also the tools that would be desirable for collaborative learning. These may include shared workspaces, the sharing of documents, and even virtual-reality possibilities of being in almost physical contact with collaborators who are in reality at a distance.

A second area of important research for the future is the design and evaluation of specific CMC environments for the effective implementation of particular types of instructional activities. These may include simulation games, small-group discussions, group assignments, or case study discussions. These techniques, which are typically practiced in small-group discussion situations facilitated by a skilled expert, are among the techniques that are most valued for the development of critical thinking, problem solving, and other higher-order cognitive skills.

As society progresses into the age of technology, more of the routine tasks performed by human beings will be taken over by computers (whether they be physical tasks replaced by robots or intellectual tasks replaced by expert systems). The area for human employability will be evermore restricted to those types of tasks that computer systems cannot perform effectively. Some of these will be tasks that are very reliant on interpersonal skills, empathy, and human contact. Others will be the tasks of the "knowledge worker," that is, the person who can perform intellectual tasks beyond the capability of computer software. Such knowledge work is characterized by the utilization of current knowledge for the creation of new knowledge. It is not so much problem solving as the formulation of problems that are worth solving. It is creativity; it is invention; it is leadership. As an ever-greater proportion of the jobs performed by human beings have these characteristics, there will be an ever-greater need for critical thinking and creativity skills and therefore an increasing need for educational methodologies and techniques that are effective at developing them.

Here we have a somewhat paradoxical situation in that as the scenario presented earlier would suggest, small-group face-to-face meetings will appear evermore expensive as compared with the falling costs of various telecommunications-based methodologies of communication. Therefore, we may be able to afford ever less (in terms of teaching methodologies) of what we require evermore-unless we can implement on CMC networks techniques for small-group discussion that will be able to substitute the small-group face-to-face techniques that we may not be able to afford. As an example, the work being performed by Romiszowski and Chang (1992) and Chang (1994) is focused exactly on this particular set of research questions, concentrating in particular on the replication in a CMC environment of effective business case analysis and discussion methodologies.

14.8.4 Network Research: The Tool Level

We have proceeded through the levels of policymaking, strategic planning, and tactical decision making. The fourth area of research can be referred to as the logistics area, that is, research into the tools required in order to put our strategic and tactical plans into action. Very often in the field of new technological developments, the tools are the elements that appear first. Sometimes, too often in fact, the availability of the tools becomes the starting point for a project, and we follow the process of a "solution in search of a problem to solve," as opposed to a systemic and well-organized problem-solving approach.

It should be stressed that both of these alternative approaches are important in the research field. As new tools appear, such as for example desktop video, there is a need to explore their potential within certain areas of possible application. For example, in the area of education, and particularly computer-mediated communication, in what way is desktop video a new technology that will offer simply a reduced cost per hour of video conferencing, or will it offer certain potential for setting up tactical plans or even overall strategies that were not possible before with the technologies at our disposal? Of course, having set up these possible scenarios and going through the research stages of proving the concept and its viability, then comes the stage of turning the process around in order to verify to what extent there really is a market or a need for this potential new product.

The tools-related research should therefore be integrated very closely with the three upper levels of research that we have already outlined. There is an obvious need for keeping the policy, strategic, and tactical research abreast of the tools research so that we have rational plans for the utilization of specific new tools and technologies as they become available, rather than being swept away by the appearance of the tools without a chance for prior evaluation of whether we are traveling in the most appropriate direction.